The core issues to be settled -- access to Hormuz, Israel's aggression in Lebanon, the question of Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions relief and compensation -- are thorny enough to require weeks of patient negotiation. The most likely outcome of the opening sessions is that both sides take the measure of each other, establish what is and is not negotiable, and return home without having broken anything. That would count as progress.
US President Donald Trump hinted at the possibility of the US seizing Iran's key oil export hub on Kharg Island, suggesting it could be done with minimal resistance. He also expressed his desire to take Iran's oil resources, while indicating potential negotiations and a possible deal with Iran.
'In such a scenario, Iran could proclaim itself victor, rebuild, re-enforce its diminished regional proxies to further destabilise neighbouring nations and take control of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.'
Speaking to reporters during a cabinet meeting at the White House on Thursday, Trump said the US had engaged in 'very substantial talks' with Iranian officials and described the tanker movement as proof of seriousness in the discussions.
Speaking to North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly on Tuesday, Kim accused the United States of carrying out 'terrorism and invasions' across regions, referring to the ongoing conflict involving Iran.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Tuesday said that the United States has not ruled out the option of sending troops on the ground in Iran and that military operations in the Persian Gulf nation would end once the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are achieved.
India's ace all-rounder Hardik Pandya on Thursday said his preparation ahead of any major tournament is akin to army-camp-style training, incorporating rigorous physical activities and discipline to help him perform at his peak for the country.
The intriguing bit is that Trump is likely to attend the talks in Islamabad this weekend -- if he does, it will be the clearest signal yet that the US is ready to exit the war with some sort of win to show, since he cannot afford to go for the talks and return empty-handed, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War
Although extensive air attacks have been carried out to destroy most of Iran's defence capabilities, the latter's resilience and sustenance during the war clearly indicate that the US landing force would encounter severe resistance in the operation, explains Commodore Venugopal Vengalil (retd).
The pause gives the US time to breathe, to regroup, to move its expeditionary force into position without risk of interception along the way. It gives Iran nothing -- on the ground, attacks against its infrastructure continue apace. Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia, Israeli Ambassador to India, Reuven Azar, stated that Israel is willing to cease hostilities if Iran changes its course, emphasising that Tel Aviv has consulted diplomatic channels, including the US and regional partners.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei on Sunday said that the recent meeting with US officials was the longest round of negotiations they have had in the past year.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump outlined key goals of the campaign, including degrading Iran's missile capabilities, dismantling its defence industrial base, eliminating naval and air power, preventing Tehran from acquiring nuclear capability, and protecting United States allies such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
'What we have yet to see on either the US or the Iranian side is willingness to compromise on their ultimate demands and the flexibility to reach an agreement to end the war.
Specifically, military experts are assessing if the 'Octopus' interceptor anti-drone system, produced in the UK to support Ukraine in countering Russian threats, could be repurposed to strengthen British protections against Iran's Shahed drones.
The BSE Sensex plummeted 1,236 points, wiping out nearly Rs 7 lakh crore in investor wealth, driven by escalating tensions between the US and Iran and subsequent market selloff.
Trump has said he would be present at the signing ceremony in Islamabad. Don't be surprised if the Pakistani hosts make it a grand event in the geopolitics of the region. Trump would love that, notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Trump seems to have estimated that Ghalibaf is a pragmatic politician who is receptive to close relations with the US and is enthusiastic about fostering business and economic ties in particular, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
The question is whether the clocks allow enough time for two deeply mistrustful sides to get there, and whether the surface calm holds long enough for the paddling to produce something before the ceasefire ends on April 22, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
'So far our production is not affected. But every day the situation prolongs, it does bring risks in terms of shipments getting delayed.'
Amid escalating tensions with Iran, President Trump is urging nations dependent on Middle Eastern oil to deploy warships to the Strait of Hormuz to safeguard critical global energy supplies.
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The United States on Friday said that it is not pursuing military option in Syria at the moment, noting that this is not the wise thing to do under current circumstances.
Nobody takes Pakistan seriously and therefore Pakistan's sudden mediating with almost immediate results of a ceasefire seems more contrived than real, points out Vice Admiral Biswajit Dasgupta (retd).
This weekend, Donald Trump has begun to say the quiet part out loud -- that he wants to take control of Iran's oil, a formulation more in line with his robber-baron style of international relations.
Trump may strike. He may announce productive talks and extend again. He may do both at the same time. Iran will not open the Strait on someone else's terms, so no matter what happens, that problem will remain unsolved. And the IRGC will still be collecting its $2 million toll from every ship bold enough to ask permission to pass.
'American stature has been reduced because they have not been able to achieve their aims.'
A spokesperson for the Central Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters said that Iran's armed forces are prepared to intensify their response if aggression continues.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
'Without ground troops the US will not be able to oust the Iranian Islamic regime. Political change does not happen just by using bombs or planes.'
The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy 'bridges next, then electric power plants', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The question is no longer whether the war will expand. It has. The next few days will tell us whether the war stabilises around Hormuz or whether the Strait itself becomes the trigger for a far larger rupture. What to watch for over the next 48 hours is simple: Any move by the US toward direct naval control of the Strait; any credible Iranian attempt to disrupt or mine shipping lanes and, critically, whether energy infrastructure in the Gulf continues to be targeted.If those lines are crossed in tandem, the war will no longer be containable within the region.
The Indian embassy in Tehran has earlier stated that it is facilitating the safe movement of nationals who wish to leave Iran.
The United States needs to maintain its military threat against Syria as such pressure forced the Assad regime to change its posture on chemical weapons, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said today.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
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